Decoded China Series: Electricity Rationing and Fiscal Borders (full note, PDF)

Decoded, China series. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 30 pages, 13 tables.

When does a fiscal border change which feasible production survives an electricity shortage? the author joins an actual county priority plan, long-run electricity releases and a verified historical provincial production network with a transparent allocation model. The central fixed-origin benchmark gives zero additional fiscal gap. A selected flexibility case gives 0.264442 national index points, conditional on assumed power, capacity and objective inputs. The complete 30-page English PDF contains 15 figures, 13 tables, 71 independently audited optimization programs, the full non-monotone sensitivity grid and explicit no-shortage, aligned-objective and feeder-cap counterexamples. An assumed four-node appendix explains the mechanism algebraically. Clickable primary references and precise uncertainty labels distinguish planned calendars, historical estimated flows and conditional results. No actual fiscal intent, executed national output loss or budget deficit is estimated. The 2017 MRIO is not the current 2026 network; the closest paper full text was inaccessible and universal novelty is not claimed. Author: the author. Format: downloadable PDF only, exactly 30 pages. Cutoff: 23 October 2026. Price: USD 29, one-time purchase.

Inside the full note:

• Wuyi makes a fiscal and evaluation gradient visible
• The model setup separates data from every assumed margin
• Fixed origins eliminate the tested fiscal tradeoff
• A flexible-origin example produces a positive gap
• More substitution need not shrink the gap monotonically
• Four zero cases reject a necessary border penalty