Foresight No. 6: The End of Cheap Duration (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 6. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 14 tables.

For a decade, governments, home buyers and pension funds could borrow for ten years at rates that barely covered expected inflation: between 2012 and 2021 the German ten-year yield averaged 0.44 percent, the French 0.93 percent and the British 1.49 percent. That era is over. In September 2026 ten-year yields averaged 4.99 percent in the United States, 5.24 percent in the United Kingdom, 4.44 percent in France, 3.47 percent in Germany and 3.88 percent in Canada; for the United Kingdom this was the highest monthly average since 2007, for France since 2008 and for Germany since 2009.

Inside the full note:

• Thirty-five years of long rates: what cheap duration was
• Decomposing the ten-year yield
• What drives the term premium
• A saving-investment model of the neutral rate to 2035
• Four scenarios to 2035
• The debt-service consequences
• Is cheap duration over? A verdict by country
• Leading indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: The End of Cheap Duration.