Foresight No. 12: The Reindustrialisation Race (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 12. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 7 tables.

Between 2021 and 2024 the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada each launched programmes to bring manufacturing home: the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, France 2030 and the green industry tax credit, German chip and battery aid followed by energy price relief, the British Industrial Strategy of June 2025, and Canada’s clean investment tax credits and electric vehicle deals. Five years on, the race has a first set of results, and they are sobering. In 2025 the manufacturing share of GDP was lower than in 2019 in all five economies and below its 2010 to 2019 trend in all five.

Inside the full note:

• Five programmes, one race: what was promised and what was paid
• Outcomes: construction, output, jobs and the manufacturing share
• Subsidy efficiency: what did the money buy?
• Two-speed manufacturing: energy-intensive versus high-tech
• From announcement to production: the pipeline
• Structural competitiveness: the filter subsidies cannot remove
• Four scenarios to 2030
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy, investors and firms
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: The Reindustrialisation Race.