Decoded No. 17: Fiscal Rules Meet Reality (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 17. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 10 tables.

Four of the five largest Western economies run on a fiscal rule; the fifth, the United States, runs on a debt limit that is not a rule. In 2026 all five were hit by the same shock: a war involving Iran, oil above 100 dollars a barrel and 10-year yields 59 to 113 basis points higher between February and September. This note asks which rules survive contact with that reality.

Inside the full note:

• The rulebook in October 2026
• Sixteen years of rules: the track record
• Plans and reality
• Headroom: how likely is each rule to be met?
• A rule credibility score
• The bond market reaction function
• Washington: life without a rule
• Scenarios to 2028
• Leading-indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: Fiscal Rules Meet Reality.