Decoded China Series: Idle Capacity and Shortage Insurance (full note, PDF)

Decoded, China series. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 30 pages, 16 figures, 11 tables.

When could a technically operable reserve insure a foreign shortage? the author separates design-capacity slack from engineering readiness using China BlueChemical urea disclosures, Tianye suspension evidence, report-vintage changes, an exact export-production bridge and actual H1 2026 data. CF procurement and product-specific restart dates constrain the foreign case. The 30-page English PDF contains 16 scientific figures and 11 tables, with a fully exposed 84-day stock-flow model, five conditional states, real carrying and event costs, inventory-only and mixed alternatives, same-stock reserve values, delivery constraints and explicit zero-gain cases. All engineering, probability and cost inputs are assumptions. Inventory alone wins the illustrative baseline. C250/I0 has global annual net minus USD39,880 versus foreign-only minus USD101,380 when all incremental costs are charged to foreign relief at assumed p0.10. Donor relief and real resources are shown separately; the global break-even probability is not a foreign-only threshold. No national Chinese reserve, causal foreign response or calibrated welfare return is estimated. Author: the author. Format: protected downloadable PDF only, exactly 30 pages. Information cutoff: 24 October 2026. Price: USD 29, one-time purchase. Clickable primary citations and explicit source-access limits are included.

Inside the full note:

• Design slack is not a ready insurance option
• Unchanged output can acquire a new utilization ratio
• Complete scenario setup before the results
• Daily stocks, startup and arrivals constrain service
• Real annual and event costs are explicit
• A favorable long event is not the baseline average
• The break-even probability is global
• Foreign relief, donor relief and extra resources
• Inventory and reserve increments have different comparators
• The mechanism has explicit zero cases