Decoded No. 1: Five Bond Markets, One Shock (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 1. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 23 pages, 13 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.

Between 27 February and 16 October 2026, government bond yields rose by 70 to 140 basis points in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada. This note tests the two dominant stories (a fiscal revolt or an inflation scare) with daily data from the US Treasury, the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, the Bank of Canada and the OECD, and builds an original model of how fast each government interest bill absorbs the shock.

Inside the full note:

• The anatomy of the sell-off in four bond markets, and why it was a bear flattening
• The US decomposition: real yields, breakeven inflation and the term premium
• The oil beta of bond yields before and during the war
• One market, then five again: the common global factor and the return of national risk
• A fiscal pass-through model validated against the UK Office for Budget Responsibility
• The extra interest bill for each country, year by year, over ten years
• The primary balance now required to stabilise debt
• Three scenarios to 2032 and a dashboard of leading indicators with alert thresholds

Read the free preview: Five Bond Markets, One Shock.