Foresight No. 4: The Tipping Zone, a French Debt Crisis (full note, PDF)
The full 30-page prospective note: three ways a French debt crisis could start and what it would cost Europe, built on contagion econometrics, a regime-switching model and 10,000 debt simulations. Instant PDF download.
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About the author
Foresight, prospective note No. 4. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 30 pages, 16 charts and diagrams, 13 tables.
On 21 October 2026 the French 10-year government bond yield crossed 5 percent for the first time since 2002 and its spread over German Bunds reached about 159 basis points, the widest since 2011. France now borrows at a higher rate than Italy. Public debt stood at 119.0 percent of GDP at the end of June, the 2026 deficit is expected at 5.4 percent of GDP, the 2027 budget has not been voted, and a presidential election is set for 18 April and 2 May 2027.
Inside the full note:
- France in October 2026: the facts
- A map of triggers and channels
- Is France a transmitter of risk?
- Where French shocks land
- Regimes and the tipping zone
- Warranted or not? The lost core discount
- Stochastic debt sustainability
- Three crisis triggers
- Contagion to Europe
- A dashboard of leading indicators
- Implications for policy and for investors
- What to watch
Read the free preview: The Tipping Zone.
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