Foresight No. 13: Critical Minerals 2030 (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 13. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 9 tables.

Between August 2023 and October 2025 China built a licensing regime that now covers gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten and twelve rare earth elements, and in October 2025 it added a rule that reaches foreign-made products containing as little as 0.1 percent of Chinese rare earths by value. Most of the October 2025 package was suspended for one year after the Busan meeting of 30 October 2025, and the US-China truce has since been extended to 10 January 2027. Nothing has been repealed.

Inside the full note:

• The control regime: switched on, paused, not repealed
• Five responses, five toolkits
• Where the chokepoints are
• The Exposure Index: who is exposed, to what
• Supply and requirements to 2030
• The cost of a disruption
• Time to independence
• Four scenarios to 2030
• Leading indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy, investors and industry
• What to watch

Read the free preview: Critical Minerals 2030.