Decoded No. 12: Housing in a 5 Percent World (full note, PDF)
The full 25-page analysis note. With new mortgage rates above 5 percent, US homes are the least affordable since at least 2000. Instant PDF download.
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Decoded, analysis note No. 12. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 9 tables.
The 2026 oil shock has pushed the rate on a new mortgage back above 5 percent in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, and to 4 percent in Germany. For a household that wants to buy, the question is no longer whether rates will return to the levels of the 2010s but what has to give instead: prices, incomes or time. This note answers that question for the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada with five tools built for it.
Inside the full note:
- Five markets in 2026
- The affordability index
- What moved the burden: rates, prices and incomes
- The required correction
- Valuation: price-to-rent, real prices and the cost of owning
- Transactions and the lock-in effect
- How prices adjust
- Scenarios to 2028
- Leading-indicators dashboard
- Implications for buyers, builders, banks and policy
- What to watch
Read the free preview: Housing in a 5 Percent World.
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