Foresight No. 16: Trade Blocs (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 16. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 28 pages, 15 charts and diagrams, 11 tables.

The trading system has not collapsed, but it has been rebuilt on new legal foundations. After the Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariffs on 20 February 2026, a 150-day surcharge bridged the gap until Section 301 duties of 10 or 12.5 percent on 60 economies took over on 24 July, on top of Section 232 sector duties. The average effective US tariff was 7.4 percent in August 2026, against 2.3 percent in January 2025, and 22.3 percent on China; the US-China truce runs to 10 January 2027.

Inside the full note:

• The trade regime in October 2026
• Who trades with whom: the exposure matrix
• What fragmentation costs: the evidence so far
• A ten-region model
• The bill for the 2026 tariff layer
• Four scenarios to 2035
• Friend-shoring: insurance or tax?
• Sector winners and losers
• Robustness
• Leading-indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: Trade Blocs.