Decoded China Series: Export Invoices and Household Paydays (full note, PDF)

Decoded, China series. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 30 pages, 15 figures, 11 tables.

When does a late accepted export invoice reach a worker’s payday? the author separates invoice maturity, collection, usable employer cash, payroll instruction, partial/full bank credit and household purchases. Public industrial and wage releases and Haier’s global accounts do not identify their causal linkage. The issuer pilot makes no allegation of actual wage arrears. The complete 30-page English PDF contains 15 scientific figures and 11 tables, explicit source/vintage and accounting-scope checks, and a fully declared 120-day employer-household experiment. Five-day slack and an assumed-budget cash threshold show when payroll is protected; credit, factoring and household buffers interrupt different links. Optimal-plan spending ranges are not confidence intervals. All economic model parameters are assumptions. Fixed horizon wage principal, spending resources and terminal assets define a timing-only comparison; they do not prove unchanged actual annual consumption. 320 saved LP certificates and 3,702 independent checks verify computation, not empirical causality. No national spending extrapolation, optimal employer portfolio or universal novelty is claimed. Author: the author. Format: downloadable PDF only, exactly 30 pages. Cutoff: 24 October 2026. Price: USD 29, one-time purchase.

Inside the full note:

• The missing evidence is a linked sequence of cash dates
• Long-run receivable stocks provide context with a break
• Benefit expense and payable balances are different accounts
• Declare the employer and household experiment before results
• The objectives separate prompt payment from spending utility
• An on-time partial credit can conceal a late completion
• An optimal-plan interval is not a confidence interval