Decoded No. 20: Strategic Reserves Running Dry (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 20. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 9 tables.

In March 2026 the members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, the largest collective action in the agency’s history, and pledged 426 million. By 15 October about 331 million barrels had been delivered and the G7 had asked for the remaining 100 million, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel, within four months. This note asks what is left of the insurance policy once the claim has been paid.

Inside the full note:

• The 2026 drawdown: what was released, by whom and how fast
• Five national systems
• Days of cover before and after
• A remaining insurance index
• How long could the system absorb a renewed Hormuz disruption?
• The refill: cost, timing and the forward curve
• Gas storage: the second insurance policy
• Scenarios to end-2027
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy, markets and firms
• What to watch

Read the free preview: Strategic Reserves Running Dry.