Decoded China Series: Overseas Contracts and Domestic Liquidity (full note, PDF)

Decoded, China series. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 30 pages, 15 figures, 10 tables.

When can an overseas promise become a domestic funding requirement? the author audits selected Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG disclosures and constructs a fully specified dated contract network. The pilot verifies actual guarantee payments but identifies no positive incremental independent foreign outward amount. That missing identification is not an estimate of zero exposure. The 30-page English PDF includes 15 scientific figures and 10 tables, stock-versus-cash reconciliations, the unresolved 82-versus-8 source comparator, an associate exclusion, a foreign creditor-direction case and a 128-state conditional cash model. Assumed contract units, trigger probabilities, recoveries, available credit, cash buffers and investment priorities are declared before results. Pure correlation is separated from wrong-way credit; counterexamples show why not every mean or event frequency worsens. Additional bridge amounts measure funding required for full performance, not promised or obtained finance. Firm unrecovered principal is not global resource destruction. No actual foreign total, national financing gap or causal investment response is estimated. Clickable primary references and explicit source-access limits accompany the analysis. Author: the author. Format: downloadable PDF only, exactly 30 pages. Information cutoff: 24 October 2026. Price: USD 29, one-time purchase.

Inside the full note:

• Real payments do not identify the foreign component
• Six stock observations show exposure categories changing
• Recognition and maximum cash answer different questions
• A synthetic ledger separates the mechanism from issuer amounts
• The event law keeps expected calls fixed
• Dependence raises the gross-call tail at the same mean
• Zero cases prevent a necessary investment-cut story