Decoded No. 16: The Diesel Tax Nobody Voted For (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 16. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 15 tables.

In 2026 diesel became the most expensive part of the oil shock. Between the 2025 average and September 2026, Brent rose 65 percent while New York Harbor ultra-low-sulphur diesel rose 113 percent, and the diesel crack (the price of diesel minus the price of crude) went from 29 to 94 dollars a barrel, against 17 dollars in 2019. This note asks who pays for that gap, and who receives it, in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada.

Inside the full note:

• Why diesel, not crude: the anatomy of the 2026 distillate shock
• Decomposing the pump price, 2019 to 2026
• Who pays: an incidence model for five countries
• United States: the input-output pass-through
• Place and income in Europe and Canada
• The two windfalls: refiners and treasuries
• Scenarios to end-2027
• Leading-indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for businesses
• What to watch

Read the free preview: The Diesel Tax Nobody Voted For.