Decoded No. 23: The War Premium on Trade (full note, PDF)
The full 25-page analysis note. Hormuz war cover costs 6 to 10 percent of a ship’s value per transit and long-haul crude freight a quarter of the oil price. Instant PDF download.
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About the author
Decoded, analysis note No. 23. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 10 tables.
Eight months after the war involving Iran began, moving goods by sea carries a premium that did not exist in February. Hormuz saw 13 crossings on 4 October against 130 to 135 a day before the war; insurers quote 6 to 10 percent of hull value per transit, about forty times the pre-war rate; Saudi-linked ships face a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea; Black Sea tanker earnings hit their highest since 2008; and sanctions cover 1,226 tankers. This note measures what the premium costs, where it lands and how much reaches consumer prices in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada.
Inside the full note:
- Four corridors in October 2026
- Freight rates: containers and tankers
- Decomposing the container rate: how much is war?
- The insurance arithmetic
- Rerouting arithmetic: Suez versus the Cape
- From freight to import prices
- Who and what is exposed
- From import prices to consumer prices
- Scenarios to the end of 2027
- Leading indicators dashboard
- Implications for policy, businesses and investors
- What to watch
Read the free preview: The War Premium on Trade.
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