Foresight No. 1: The Ageing Bill (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 1. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 13 charts and diagrams, 7 tables.

Population ageing is usually treated as a slow problem for the 2040s. This note argues that for the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada it is a problem of the next ten years, now amplified by the rise in bond yields since February 2026. Using World Bank population projections to 2050 and the IMF World Economic Outlook of October 2026, it builds four original tools: a demographic growth-accounting decomposition, an estimate of age-related spending under a uniform “no-reform” rule compared with official projections, a debt model to 2050 at current market yields, and a “fiscal ageing gap”, the permanent adjustment needed to bring debt in 2050 back to its 2026 level.

Inside the full note:

• The demographic arithmetic, 2025 to 2050
• Growth: measuring the demographic drag
• The ageing bill: age-related spending to 2050
• Debt dynamics to 2050
• Scenarios to 2050
• The fiscal ageing gap: who can still stabilise debt?
• Policy levers: what buys the most fiscal room?
• A leading-indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: The Ageing Bill.