Foresight No. 8: After Hormuz (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 8. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.

The war that began on 28 February 2026 produced what the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 20 million barrels a day before the war to an average of 2.7 million barrels a day between March and May, and were still only 10.9 million barrels a day in September. Qatar, which supplied about 19 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2025, halted production on 2 March, and two of its LNG trains will need about three years of repairs.

Inside the full note:

• Anatomy of the 2026 shock
• Five energy systems on the eve of the shock
• An energy-security exposure index
• Who paid in 2026: a decomposition by channel
• The policy responses of 2026
• Four scenarios for 2030
• The 2030 energy mix: results
• Cost, carbon and the repeat-shock test
• Who wins and who stays exposed
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: After Hormuz.