Decoded No. 13: Tariffs plus Oil (full note, PDF)
The full 26-page analysis note. US tariffs and the Hormuz oil shock raise manufacturing costs by about 4.3 percent, 277 billion dollars a year, and tariffs are four-fifths of it. Instant PDF download.
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Decoded, analysis note No. 13. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.
North American manufacturers entered the autumn of 2026 with two cost shocks stacked on the same balance sheet. The first is a tariff layer that has been rebuilt three times since February: Section 232 duties on metals, vehicles and parts, Section 301 duties of 10 percent on Canada and Mexico for goods that do not enter under the trade agreement, and, from 22 August, a 50 percent Section 338 duty on a list of Canadian goods. The second is the oil shock that followed the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz: Brent averaged 127 dollars a barrel in October, 84 percent above its 2025 average, and US diesel cost 6.28 dollars a gallon on 19 October, 73 percent more than a year earlier.
Inside the full note:
- The two layers in October 2026
- An input-output model of the double shock
- Ranking the supply chains
- Round trips: why border crossings compound
- Margins or prices: the 2025 to 2026 evidence
- Reshoring or disruption
- Scenarios to end-2027
- Leading-indicators dashboard
- Implications for firms, investors and policy
- What to watch
Read the free preview: Tariffs plus Oil.
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