Decoded No. 11: The Great Labour Divergence (full note, PDF)
The full 28-page analysis note. US unemployment is 4.2 percent while France and Germany slacken, but the American resilience is mostly a supply story: net immigration collapsed and participation fell. Instant PDF download.
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Decoded, analysis note No. 11. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 28 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 16 tables.
In the autumn of 2026 five large labour markets tell different stories. US unemployment is 4.2 percent in September, below its 4.5 percent high of November 2025. Canada’s has fallen from 7.1 to 6.5 percent in a year and the United Kingdom’s from 5.2 to 4.7 percent.
Inside the full note:
- The divergence in numbers
- The supply shock: migration and demography
- Supply or demand? Decomposing the last twelve months
- Five national stories
- Beveridge curves: where each market sits
- Okun’s law with a moving speed limit
- Sectoral divergence
- A Labour Slack Index
- Scenarios to the end of 2027
- Leading-indicators dashboard
- Implications for policy and for investors
- What to watch
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