Foresight No. 18: Stablecoins and Monetary Sovereignty (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 18. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 16 tables.

Dollar stablecoins are tokens that promise to pay one US dollar on demand and hold short-term Treasury bills to back the promise. They have grown from 27 billion dollars at the end of 2020 to 304.2 billion dollars at the end of September 2026, and in 2025 and 2026 they acquired a legal framework: the GENIUS Act in the United States, MiCA in the European Union, a systemic regime at the Bank of England and a Stablecoin Act in Canada. Two claims now circulate.

Inside the full note:

• The market in 2026: concentrated, dollar-only, thinly buffered
• Four rulebooks
• Stablecoins in the bill market today
• Four growth paths to 2030
• The Treasury channel: bill demand and bill yields
• The sovereignty channel: dollarisation pressure
• The bank channel: deposits and lending
• The run channel and the Treasury market
• Four scenarios to 2030
• Leading indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: Stablecoins and Monetary Sovereignty.