Decoded No. 14: The Thin Cushion (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 14. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 10 tables.

Europe enters the winter of 2026 to 2027 with less gas in storage than at the same date in any year since at least 2017. On 22 October the EU’s underground storage was 74.6 percent full, 845 terawatt-hours (TWh) out of 1,132, against 82.8 percent a year earlier and a five-year average of 89.4 percent. Germany was at 61.2 percent, below its own 70 percent reference level for 1 November.

Inside the full note:

• Where Europe stands on 24 October 2026
• The rules: storage targets and the Russian ban
• A winter balance model
• From storage to prices: a scarcity curve
• Scenarios to September 2027
• Who pays: households and industry
• The transatlantic link
• The second winter: refilling in 2027
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: The Thin Cushion.