Foresight No. 9: The AI Dividend (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 9. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 27 pages, 15 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.

Generative artificial intelligence has moved from novelty to routine in less than four years. In the United States, the share of firms using AI rose from 3.7 percent in September 2023 to 19.8 percent in May 2026; in the European Union it rose from 8 to 20 percent between 2023 and 2025; in Canada it tripled in two years, to 19.2 percent. Four American cloud companies spent about 410 billion dollars on capital equipment in 2025 and plan about 725 billion dollars in 2026, 2.2 percent of US GDP.

Inside the full note:

• Adoption: fast, broad, and still shallow
• The investment boom: concentrated in the United States
• Productivity 2015 to 2025: the United States pulls away
• What the literature says, and why it disagrees
• The exposure-adoption-complementarity model
• Four paths to 2035
• Productivity paths to 2035
• The J-curve check: capex boom, measured productivity
• Distribution: occupations, wages and the labour share
• The fiscal dividend: what half a point of growth is worth
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy, businesses and investors
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: The AI Dividend.