Foresight No. 17: Heat, Drought and Rivers (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 17. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 14 tables.

The summer of 2026 gave Europe its clearest lesson yet in physical climate risk. Germany set three national temperature records in three days in late June, France recorded its hottest day since 1947, and in August the Rhine at Kaub fell to 14 centimetres, the lowest reading since records began in 1880, splitting Europe’s busiest inland waterway in two. In North America, Canada had just lived through its second-worst wildfire season in 2025 and the United States counted 23 billion-dollar disasters in the same year, one every ten days.

Inside the full note:

• The record of 2025 and 2026
• What the macro literature says, and what has been corrected
• A Physical Risk Exposure Index
• The damage engine and three warming paths
• GDP losses to 2035
• Sectoral channels
• Fiscal costs: disaster relief and public insurance backstops
• Financial stability: mortgages in flood and fire zones
• Adaptation: investment needs and returns
• Leading-indicators dashboard
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: Heat, Drought and Rivers.