Decoded No. 2: The Mortgage Reset Clock (full note, PDF)
The full 25-page analysis note: mortgage rates jumped after the 2026 oil shock, but households pay only when their rate resets. Instant PDF download.
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About the author
Decoded, analysis note No. 2. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 7 tables.
The oil shock that followed the outbreak of war involving Iran at the end of February 2026 has pushed new mortgage rates sharply higher. The US 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.36 percent in October, against 6.05 percent in February. The quoted UK 2-year fixed rate rose from 3.97 to 5.13 percent while Bank Rate stayed at 3.75 percent, and a Canadian 5-year fixed rate proxy rose from 4.32 to 5.08 percent with the Bank of Canada on hold.
Inside the full note:
- The shock in mortgage markets
- Five mortgage contracts
- Method: a cohort model of the mortgage stock
- The reset clock
- What households will pay
- Tightening without hiking
- The United States: lock-in instead of payment shock
- House prices and rate sensitivity
- Scenarios to 2028 and beyond
- A dashboard of leading indicators for household mortgage stress
- Implications for policy, lenders, households and investors
- What to watch
Read the free preview: The Mortgage Reset Clock.
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