Decoded No. 3: Oil Shock, Not Yet a Wage Shock (full note, PDF)

Decoded, analysis note No. 3. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 25 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.

The war that began at the end of February 2026 doubled the price of oil. Brent averaged 62.5 dollars a barrel in December 2025 and 127.0 dollars in the first weeks of October 2026, and headline inflation has risen again in the United States (3.7 percent in September), the United Kingdom (3.1 percent in August), France (3.4 percent), Germany (3.3 percent) and Canada (3.1 percent). The question that matters for interest rates and wages in 2027 is whether this first-round shock is turning into a second-round one, in which wages, services prices and expectations chase energy prices, as in 2022.

Inside the full note:

• The same shock, a different economy
• Framework and data
• The first round: how much oil, and how much else
• Labour markets: the gate that has closed
• Underlying momentum
• A second-round risk index
• The real wage cushion, and the grievance gap
• Central banks: over- or under-reacting?
• Scenarios to December 2027
• What would turn the oil shock into a wage shock
• Implications for policy and for investors
• What to watch

Read the free preview: Oil Shock, Not Yet a Wage Shock.