Foresight No. 10: Britain’s Stagflation Trap (full note, PDF)
The full 26-page prospective note. Britain has combined weak growth and above-target inflation for four years running. Instant PDF download.
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About the author
Foresight, prospective note No. 10. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 15 charts and diagrams, 8 tables.
Four days before the first Budget of Chancellor John Healey, the United Kingdom combines the two symptoms that define stagflation. Consumer price inflation rose from 3.1 percent in August to 3.5 percent in September 2026, with services inflation at 3.7 percent and petrol at its highest price since 2022. Growth is positive but modest: GDP rose by 0.6 percent in the first quarter and 0.5 percent in the second, and by 0.1 percent in August.
Inside the full note:
- Britain in October 2026: the facts
- Is Britain in stagflation? An index for five economies
- The supply side: why growth slowed after 2016
- The policy trilemma
- Four paths to 2030
- A dashboard of leading indicators
- Implications for policy and for investors
- What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027
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