Foresight No. 11: The Sovereignty Ledger (full note, PDF)

Foresight, prospective note No. 11. Driss EFFINA, PhD. October 2026. PDF, 26 pages, 14 charts and diagrams, 9 tables.

In twenty months Canada has lived through more trade policy than in the previous twenty years. The United States imposed tariffs under four different laws, saw its emergency tariffs struck down by its own Supreme Court on 20 February 2026, declined on 1 July to confirm the 16-year extension of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), applied 50 percent duties under the long-dormant Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 from 22 August, and now threatens 50 percent tariffs on Canadian vehicles and parts from 1 January 2027. Canada answered with counter-tariffs on 27.6 billion Canadian dollars of US goods, a trade deal with China on electric vehicles and canola, a free trade agreement with Indonesia, a law on internal trade, a new oil pipeline to the Pacific listed as a project of national interest, and a defence industrial strategy that aims to place 70 percent of procurement at home.

Inside the full note:

• The rupture in numbers
• An economic dependence index
• Decomposing the tariff wall: sectors and provinces
• Where can trade go? A gravity view
• The wall inside: internal trade barriers
• Energy, minerals and defence: the strategic levers
• Four scenarios to 2035
• A dashboard of leading indicators
• Implications for policy, businesses and investors
• What to watch, October 2026 to mid-2027

Read the free preview: The Sovereignty Ledger.